Location: Paris, Arkansas
Disease: Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia
Recap: There is a grossly unusual outbreak of Streptococcus pneumoniae reported in Paris, Arkansas. This is the culmination of a series of warnings issued for the state of Arkansas by DiseaseCast for months now and is currently shown on the main DiseaseCast website. It should be noted there are multiple other states in warning level conditions.
Relevance: Any report of unusual respiratory disease that has the potential to impact the intensive care unit component of the US healthcare system is worthy of scrutiny and situational awareness.
IDIS: less than Cat 3
Current v. Forecast: Signature patterns for invasive Streptococcus in the United States have been unusual for months, including Arkansas. This is being observed at the national, regional, state, and county levels. The peak of this unusual activity varies by locality; in the case of Arkansas, we are looking at an expected peak in March 2016. Streptococcus pneumoniae is expected to contribute mildly to further intensive care unit level strain, however not at high levels. IDIS is not expected to be higher than <Cat 3.
Guidance: Advise all US healthcare providers to be aware that the nation is seeing abnormally high levels of Streptococcus pneumoniae, however this is typically seen as single cases reported weekly. Significant strain in the intensive care unit setting while not expected at this time, is plausible. Consider Streptococcus pneumoniae in the differential diagnosis.
Final observation: Abnormal, mildly disruptive levels of Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia reported and expected to increase to March 2016.