Disease: Dengue fever
Recap: Over 25,000 cases of dengue fever have been reported in Taiwan, with over 20,000 reported in Tainan City and over 4,000 in Kaohsiung. Health officials are reporting a suspected increase in cases in Kaohsiung while transmission in Tainan City tapers off. The threat of Tropical Storm Koppu is worrying officials as it may create more breeding grounds for mosquitoes.
IDIS Category 3, Local (Tainan : Kaohsiung)
Current vs. Forecast: Dengue fever in Taiwan shows strong seasonal activity with a peak in late summer and again in early fall. Ascel Bio’s forecasts are predicting ~30,000 cases by the end of 2015, and this forecast will be reassessed at the end of October with new data.
Final Observation: This is a non-routine event in Tainan City and Kaohsiung where medical infrastructure has been strained and dozens of fatalities have been reported. This is a record-breaking event, and cases are expected to decline, but continue, through December.