Disease: Dengue fever
Recap: Nation-wide outbreak of dengue fever causing various levels of local disruption with over 12,000 cases reported in New Delhi, and thousands more reported in other major cities;
IDIS: Cat 5, national level
Current vs. Forecast: Dengue fever in India has a strong seasonality in the late summer and fall, and this was consistently reported by Ascel Bio in the months leading up to the ongoing outbreak; specific case count forecasts are not reliable in India because of severe underreporting and the lack of usable statistics.
Final Observation: This outbreak is disruptive at all levels: national to local, particularly in New Delhi. Although the medical infrastructure is ‘unprepared’ to handle the influx of cases, this is not new – the medical infrastructure in India is routinely overwhelmed with dengue outbreaks during peak season. New Delhi is reporting higher case counts than anytime in the past 20 years, reflecting significant and non-routine disruption that needs to be closely monitored. India reports raw cases, not incidence, making it difficult to assess the true increase in case counts over the years. However, regional increases in transmission have also increased in years, with recent record-breaking outbreaks in Singapore, Malaysia, and Taiwan.