Location: Sudan: 12 localities in South, East, Central, West and North Darfur
Disease: Suspected viral hemorrhagic fever (VHF)
Update: The Sudanese Ministry of Health (MoH) earlier this week updated the case count of suspected VHF, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Suspected VHF, as of 30 October, now total at 200, including 104 deaths.
Based on the above number of infected and deaths, the current case fatality rate (CFR) is at 52%, which is too high to suggest dengue hemorrhagic fever. However, it is important to note that CFR tends to look worse in the beginning of an investigation due to the bias to report mortality more than morbidity. Therefore, while the current CFR makes it plausible we are dealing with Ebola in Sudan, which has about a 50% CFR, definitive lab testing is required.
IDIS Level: CAT 3; According to OCHA, the WHO is encouraging their health partners to send additional mobile teams to affected areas in both North and West Darfur. Mobilized resources for the initial response were available to those health partners, however, additional funds are needed to control the outbreak.
Ascel Bio will continue to monitor this situation in Sudan.