Ascel Bio: The Mountain region of the United States experienced a significantly higher number of Pertussis (Whooping Cough) cases in mid-January. A surge of Pertussis cases (which has a roughly 7-10 day incubation period) coincided with record snows in many parts of the region, and cold January weather.
Forecasts for the region had been “on the mark” throughout the October to December 2016 time period in the region, and lower than expected in many states such as Colorado. But the number of cases spiked in Colorado and across the entire region in the second week of January 2017. The outbreaks have not yet received significant national media attention. In January, Oklahoma state senator and anesthesiologist Ervin Yen (R-Oklahoma City) reintroduced a rule that would kill injection exemption, according to local papers.
Images – Recent Past and Near Term Forecasted Future MOUNTAIN PACIFIC REGION U.S. ONLY and Colorado ONLY Pertussis Cases. Green line represents actual case counts as reported by CDC, blue line is Ascel Bio’s forecast normal range.