Ascel Bio: The Pacific region of the United States remains under a watch for Measles, with mid-January 2017 cases still well above forecast ranges. A spike over the past few weeks has occurred, and follows a concerning number of cases in the Pacific region in December. Mumps cases in the Pacific region occurred at three times (3x) the normal rate forecast by Ascel Bio in the last month of 2016.
There are reasons to remain vigilant farther beyond California, where MMR vaccination rates have made headlines. For example, Ascel Bio has issued a watch notice for Texas for elevated levels of Mumps in the first weeks of January. Ascel Bio has issued Mumps alerts in half a dozen U.S. states this winter. Mumps risk is forecast by Ascel Bio to remain elevated through April across the United States.
Image – Recent Past and Near Term Forecasted Future PACIFIC REGION U.S. ONLY Mumps Cases. Green line represents actual case counts as reported by CDC, blue line is Ascel Bio’s forecast normal range.