Disease forecaster Ascel Bio today is issuing an alert for Syphilis disease across the United States.
Warnings for Florida, Kentucky and Virginia are issued as these states are seeing higher incidence rates above forecast, according to the most recent data from late September 2016.
Ascel Bio’s current forecasts for all three mentioned states show fluctuating increases throughout the rest of the year. Of note, Kentucky’s projection shows a large dip starting in late December 2016 continuing into January 2017. Florida and Virginia syphilitic cases have increased from previous levels that were either in range with or lower than our forecast low. This rise in cases exceeds our forecast peaks in Florida and Virginia but correlate to our projections in that time frame. In mid-September, Kentucky levels were dropping from a peak and nearing our forecast high. However, case counts have suddenly surged back to levels comparable to early September when syphilitic cases were at an all-time high.
Nationally, Ascel Bio is projecting a steady increase in syphilis cases and an increase in demand for care through the summer months. Syphilis is caused by bacteria that is primarily spread through sexual contact and produces sores at the infected area. There are several stages of the disease as it progresses untreated. Syphilis has the potential, if left untreated, to cause severe neurological damage, affecting the brain, nerves, as well as other organs such as the eyes, liver and heart. Practicing safe sex and maintaining a long term sex partner is advised.