Disease forecaster Ascel Bio is issuing alerts for mumps in 6 states: Missouri, California, Colorado, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, including an ongoing outbreak at the University of Missouri in Columbia.
In the first 6 weeks of 2017, the CDC has recorded 767 cases of mumps nationwide, an increase of 468 cases from the same period in 2016. The heightened number of cases in 2017 is a continuation of an unusual spike in cases in late 2016, which resulted in a year-end total of 5,311 cases. This compares to far fewer reported cases in 2015 (1,329), 2014 (1,151) and 2013 (584).
Cases of the disease are forecast to dip through the remainder of February before increasing again in the spring and early summer. Schools, college campuses, dormitories, and locker rooms are at increased risk for transmission.
United States National Mumps Forecast
Mumps is a highly contagious disease, though the vaccination rate for mumps in the United States is greater than 90%. Health authorities have suggested that waning immunity may be occurring and have proposed recommending a 3rd dose of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. The current dosing schedule calls for two doses.