Disease: Dengue fever
Recap: Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and the National Capital Region are experiencing an increase in dengue cases in September and October, leading to a number of regional and national countermeasures. Nationally, cases have reached above 100,000, almost 25% higher than the same time last year, and states of emergency have been declared in Bulacan and Cavite.
IDIS Category 3, Regional (Northern)
Current vs. Forecast: Dengue fever in the Philippines shows strong seasonal activity with a peak in late summer and early fall. Specific case count forecasts are not available due to inconsistently published data, but the Philippines routinely sees ~100,000 cases of dengue in a single year.
Final Observation: This is a routine event nationally for the Philippines, even though regional outbreaks are causing disruption, including indications of medical infrastructure strain.