April 25th is World Malaria Day. There are strong links between forecastable environmental conditions and malaria transmission via mosquitos. Disease forecaster Ascel Bio observed higher than forecast cases in the US over this past winter. While nearly all malaria cases in the US are imported from malaria endemic countries, weather patterns may lead to increases in the growth of malaria mosquitos in the years ahead, resulting in more local transmission.
Ascel Bio issued Warnings for Malaria in the E.N. Central and W.S. Central regions of the US as well as Florida and Ohio this week, after higher than forecast case counts were observed there. As can be seen in the image, Ascel Bio is forecasting US nationwide malaria risk to rise steadily to an August peak, when imports are at their highest. This forecast is for the number of confirmed diagnosis that will be reported to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.